Last night’s Federal Budget has created debate and discussion and much has been published regarding this budget which contains significant changes.
Global markets delivered mixed but generally resilient outcomes over the December quarter, as investors navigated shifting expectations for interest rates, valuation pressures and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Early volatility gave way to steadier conditions toward year end, supported by the US Federal Reserve’s December rate cut and continued confidence in corporate earnings. Artificial intelligence remained a key structural theme, while strength in defensive sectors, commodities, and gold helped balance a more selective risk appetite.
2025 unfolded against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, shifting central bank policy, and uneven global growth. Markets began the year cautiously, with Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency renewing tariff uncertainty and contributing to early volatility as investors assessed potential impacts on trade, inflation and corporate earnings. Confidence gradually improved as inflation moderated across major economies and expectations for steadier policy settings emerged. A powerful theme in markets was the accelerated investment in artificial intelligence, which became a central driver of global market leadership as the year progressed.
Global markets surged in the September quarter of 2025 driven by optimism around monetary easing and A.I. innovation alleviating earlier concerns over tariffs and slowing growth. Global equities powered higher on a wave of strong earnings, a long-anticipated US rate cut, and continued enthusiasm for A.I. Commodity and credit markets also strengthened, while volatility briefly flared around policy uncertainty and fiscal stress, particularly in Europe, amid a looming US government shutdown.
The June quarter was marked by resilience and recovery in global financial markets, despite a volatile backdrop shaped by shifting trade policies, persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. After a turbulent start driven by new US tariffs and escalating conflict in the Middle East, markets rebounded strongly as optimism returned on the back of tariff implementation delays and some trade truces, robust corporate earnings and a dose of central bank hope.
As we have reached the end of another financial year, we wanted to send a reminder about income distributions.
The Australian equity market started the year with great gusto with key economic metrics broadly supporting the market. This swiftly turned in February and the local bourse continued to fall throughout the remainder of the quarter. The slide was largely due to the uncertainty over US President Trump's tariffs. Fear and speculation finally became reality as the index began its steep decent in early February, falling circa -10.3%; an official correction and potentially heading towards bear territory and global recession. The Australian market reacted sharply and negatively to the Trump tariffs during the March quarter and overall experienced its steepest losses since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Australian equity market ended the quarter down (-2.8%).
Although we haven’t received any calls, as we suspect most people are quite familiar with market volatility over the years, we thought this update would put some recent market movements into perspective.
It was a nervous start to the quarter for the Australian equity market (ASX 200), as the impact of China stimulus measures and implications of rising bond yields was being digested. The resources sector felt the brunt of this nervy start falling over 5% for the month of October, however the broader market did manage to reach an all-time high on the 15th of October closing above 8,300 for the first time.
2024 was a memorable one for investors, with asset prices powering ahead.
The year started with a bang, as the positive market momentum from the fourth quarter of 2023 spilled over into the new year, under the premise that inflation would fall sharply through 2024 enabling central banks to deliver large interest rate cutting programs.
The Australian equity market (ASX 200), although starting the quarter in good spirits and continuing to rally, driven by lower-than-expected inflation data and positive sentiment, witnessed an acceleration in market volatility due to various economic and political factors. This did not deter investors as the index made history on 17 July by surpassing the 8,000 mark and closing at an all-time high of 8,057. Off the back of positive momentum supported by optimism of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve as early as September the benchmark delivered a strong quarterly return of +7.8%.
A new generation of just over 5 million Australians – born between 1965 and 1980 – are approaching their retirement years.
The Australian equity market (ASX 200), ended the quarter in the red (-1.1%). Higher than expected year-on-year core inflation readings flowing through from the March quarter attributed to the weak performance whilst market anxiety also increased at the thought of a possible rate hike - a long way away from the cuts that had been priced in earlier in the year and in late 2023.
As we have reached the end of another financial year, we wanted to send a reminder about income distributions.
The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) started the year off much like the previous finished, although most of the steam had been taken out of the rally with January producing a solid +1.20% return. February was much more muted with the uncertainty of an imminent reporting season hanging over the market however with better-than-expected results, coupled with softer-than-expected domestic inflation data, March provided some highlights as Australian shares hit new record highs. The quarter ended on a high with March producing +3.27% closing the quarter off with an attractive +5.53%.
The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) started the December quarter the same way the September quarter ended, with a sea of red as stubbornly high inflation and rising bond yields placed pressure on current and forward-looking company earnings. November and December came roaring back as positive inflation data (i.e. lower inflation numbers) and sudden falls in bond yields created an air of optimism and the potential end of central bank tightening. The share market closed at near record highs.
2023 made for another very interesting year in investment markets as macro / regime driven events resulted in extreme shifts in investor sentiment on an almost monthly basis. Investors chose to shoot first and ask questions later in what can best be described as a year of maximum noise.
The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) started the September quarter with a flurry but ended up in the red as the global “higher-for-longer” narrative (interest rates) coupled with the ever-increasing cost of living concerns caused consumer confidence to wane.
The Australian equity market returned (+1.01%), for the quarter, to end the financial year at (+14.8%).
The Australian equity market (S&P/ASX 200) started and ended the June quarter well with a slight bump in May as an unexpected rate increase caught the market by surprise. Investor resilience continued through until mid-May when momentum shifted to the downside as further rate hikes - off the back of strong labour data and services inflation - coupled with US debt ceiling concerns, started to take their toll.
As we have reached the end of another financial year, we wanted to send a reminder about income distributions.
January produced a stellar return of (+6.23%) however as the quarter progressed, it was clear rising interest rates had started to take their toll on sentiment. As financial conditions continued to tighten sharply, the equity market began to cool. Although the quarter ended in positive territory, (+3.46%), the final two months fell a combined (-2.60%).
As you have most likely heard, the Government has proposed to amend the tax rates that apply to earnings associated with large superannuation account balances.
The Australian equity market (S&P/ASX 200 TR) continued its recovery after a poor first-half of 2022 and although pulling back in the month of December, returned a strong (+9.4%) for the quarter to finish off 2022 just slightly in the red at (-1.1%). The month of November provided the yearly highlight (hitting 7-month highs) as shares rallied off the back of falling treasury yields.