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News and Insights

Much of the recent market news has been dominated by ‘Brexit’ and what it all means. Post the UK’s decision to leave the EU equity markets and the Pound Sterling pulled back aggressively as markets had largely priced in that the ‘remain’ vote would win, conversely ‘safe havens’ like gold and defensive sectors such as utilities rallied. Since that time markets have recovered (although the Pound remains at multi-decade lows), however it is still unclear what it all means for the UK and more broadly the EU.

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July 20, 2016

n a shock for financial markets which had been increasingly confident that Britain would vote to Remain in the European Union, a victory for the Leave outcome by 52% to 48% triggered an abrupt bout of “risk off” in financial markets late last week. I suspect it was probably also a shock to many Brits themselves some of whom seem to be going through a bit of Bregret (thinking they were just delivering a protest vote against the establishment and assumed that Remain would win anyway). Of course, it wasn’t a good week for Europe either. This note tries to put it all in perspective.

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June 28, 2016

In recent weeks, depending on who you speak to, the potential impact of Britain leaving the European Union are as varied as possible lotto numbers.

There will of course be things that would change if Britain leaves. The real question is what extent and how will Australian investors be impacted?

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June 22, 2016

t is certainly an interesting time for markets. As we have flagged in previous editions of the IOR our expectation has been that markets will be characterised by increasing levels of volatility and subdued growth. This has been the case when we reflect on the first half of 2016 which started off with a bang with markets falling on the back of uncertainty surrounding the Chinese market followed by a rebound in the oil and copper price which was positive for markets. This has been coupled with external factors such as the direction the US election will take, increased tension in the South China Sea and offcourse the prospect of the UK leaving the EU or ‘Brexit’ all contributing to market volatility.

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June 21, 2016

Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison put forward a number of proposed changes, mainly around contributions to superannuation and taxation, in his budget speech
last night.

Here’s a brief roundup of what the proposals could mean for you. 

Remember, proposals are not set in stone and could change as legislation passes through parliament.

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May 4, 2016

The last quarter saw a pullback in equity markets, with Australian and global equities posting negative returns for the quarter despite an uptick in the market in March. Conversely, perceived ‘defensive’ sectors such as A-REITS, global listed infrastructure and bonds posted positive returns. Lonsec’s tilts away from equities towards cash and alternative assets relative to our strategic asset allocation has dampened some of the downside experienced by equities. We have held our defensive bias since the end of 2015 and have retained our positioning this quarter.

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April 25, 2016

With global economic growth forecasts being revised downwards, global interest rates at all-time lows, the insatiable appetite for yield, some might argue, has become more desperate.

This of course is by no means a new story, but one that should be monitored closely.

At Financial Keys we believe that it is a sound business and investment principal to occasionally and selectively challenge the status quo.

Let’s take for example, Australian company payout ratios and their dividends, one area that many investors expect and follow without question.

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March 31, 2016

It has been an interesting month, with rising iron ore prices supporting the Australian share market, coupled with a bounce in the AUD from 71 cents to 76 cents. The question is whether this is the start of a sustainable upward trend in markets? Lonsec has remained cautious, preferring to hold more cash and alternative assets over equities.

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March 30, 2016

Today Shane Oliver looks at the case for a bear market and what this might mean for markets and investor returns. The one message however that we would be keen to get out, is we all need to do our very best to avoid the current noise.

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February 23, 2016

Lonsec has remained cautious on markets, increasing our underweight position to equities in favour of cash and alternative assets at the last investment committee meeting. The move reflects our expectation of ongoing market volatility, uncertainty around the strength in earnings growth for many companies and, to a lesser extent, the risk of a possible escalation in geopolitical risk, particularly around the tense situation in the Middle East and a breakdown of the EU with a possible ‘Brexit’.

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February 22, 2016

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