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November Newsletter 2005 | ![]() |
Information
is the seed for an idea, and only grows when it's watered. HEINZ V. BERGEN |
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EXCEPTIONAL PORTFOLIOS - Art or Science?
Portfolio construction is an essential element of wealth creation. We consider it to be both an art and a science. To find new opportunities you need the creative flair of an artist and the inquisitiveness of a scientist. You need enthusiasm and a willingness to look outside the square. To manage risk you need the scepticism of a scientist and the protection of a robust scientific process. All these things come together in the workings of the Financial Keys Research Committee to produce what we consider to be exceptional portfolios. Research – It’s about people and processes!
The Financial Keys Investment Research Committee dedicate much time and effort in constructing portfolios of difference in a market where ordinary is a common offering. The committee members are well experienced and have complimentary qualifications and skills. The committee meets monthly or more frequently if required. Before any investment can be recommended to a client it must first pass though our rigorous screening process. We have selected a panel of leading research and stockbroking houses. We utilise their qualitative and quantitative analysis as a basis for our initial considerations. We directly interview investment managers, and other industry participants. We also have access to other key information sources which are included in our screening process. We initially draw up a list of Approved Investments. The Approved List consists of investments that the committee considers of a high enough standard to be included in client portfolios. They are primarily comprised of investments that are recommended by the panel of research and stockbroking houses, but may also include other investments considered suitable by the Research Committee.
The Preferred List In drawing up the Preferred list we focus on identifying outstanding qualities through understanding investment manager’s philosophies, processes, people and capabilities. Our process is robust and includes consideration of the following criteria:-
The Mix Diversity is another key consideration. Diversity is about reducing risk while maintaining returns at the efficient frontier for each client risk type. There are so many aspects which we consider when blending investments:-
Portfolios are changed in response to, or in anticipation of, changing market conditions. It is a dynamic process that requires an ongoing enthusiasm for inquiry and an awareness of what is happening around us. We consider that our enthusiasm sets us apart and enables us to continue to find opportunities for inclusion in your exceptional portfolios. Andrew Condell and Myle Pham SUPER - To Split or Not to Split?
Proposed legislation allowing superannuation contributions to be split between spouses can deliver significant ongoing tax savings to couples in retirement. It also provides a further mechanism for the financial security of non working spouses. It is proposed that contributions made on or after 1 January 2006 will be splitable. The proposed legislation allows 100% of a person’s contributions for a given financial year to be ‘transferred’ from their account to their spouse’s account. The election to split must be made after the end of the financial year. Super splitting provides significant ongoing tax benefits and also further encourages the accumulation of benefits for a non working spouse. Superannuation invested in two names rather than one provides a couple with access to:
The case study below demonstrates the tax savings that would be achieved in retirement for a couple after super splitting for ten years. Stella is a 60 year old lawyer married to Liam, a 60 year old writer. In 1995 Stella had a $260,000 in superannuation benefits. Liam had $12,000. Stella has contributed $30,000 of her salary into superannuation each year for the past ten years. The table below shows Stella’s and Liam’s income in retirement under two scenarios. In the first scenario there has been no super splitting. In the second scenario, Stella has transferred her total annual contributions of $30,000 into Liam’s superannuation account. The calculations are based on an assumed earning rate of 8.2% pa over the ten years. In addition, it has been assumed that Stella and Liam draw the minimum annual allocated pension allowable so that their superannuation does not run out prematurely.
The table shows that Stella and Liam would save approximately $5,677 in tax per year from super splitting. This tax saving is a result of Stella and Liam receiving:
Super splitting provides considerable ongoing tax savings and is a further step towards addressing the imbalance in retirement benefits between working and non- working spouses. We consider this to be an excellent government initiative. Patrick Hegarty MARKET Commentary
Over the last quarter several key issues have impacted the Australian and global economy. High oil prices and hurricanes in the US have had minimal effect to date on otherwise healthy economic growth. However, there is concern these issues may dampen consumer confidence in the future.
In this context, the Australian economy performed well with positive economic indicators persisting through another quarter. That being said, the effects of inflationary fears and persistent high oil prices were evident. High oil prices pushed headline inflation rates to 3.00% in the September quarter but underlying inflation was stable at 2.5%. There were expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise rates again in their November meeting. The Reserve left rates unchanged in November but have signalled possible future rate rises. The Australian share market proved to be more volatile over the quarter. The All Ordinaries Index experienced a sharp sell off during the first week of October and has since recovered well. The fall in the All Ordinaries Index was in response to US markets reaction to the Federal Reserve expressing their concerns about inflationary fears and high oil prices which has also been experienced in the US. In the US, inflationary pressures were driven by the effects of high oil prices, At least one economist - Dr Ron Woods from Challenger, considers that this further increase could be overshooting the mark; that existing rates were already sufficient to curb core inflation. He considers that headline inflation in the US and Australia for that matter, has been skewed by the presence of high oil prices rather than domestic consumption. In other corners of the world, China and emerging Asia continue to be the leaders in global economic growth with recent figures showing annualised growth of around 9%. They continue to drive the demand for oil. Bird flu remains an unknown factor with significant ramifications for growth in Asia. The European Central Bank has reduced expected growth to between 1.3% and 2.6% in 2006 but this was in response to high oil prices and increases in expected inflation. The Japanese economy remained stable as domestic spending continued to drive the economy. There are signs now that world’s second largest economy is emerging from 10 years of stagnation with property prices and consumer spending on the rise for the first time in as many years. Looking forward, there is view amongst economic forecasters that the global economy will display growth of around 4% in 2006. We agree with the view espoused by Chris Caton, Chief Economist from BT Financial Group, that there are no clearly undervalued markets or asset classes at this time. Bargains will be hard to find and this makes stock selection even more important in portfolio construction. The outlook for the Australian economy is steady. Annual employment growth fell 2.9% in October from 4.2%. While unemployment remains at a long term low of 5.0%, the decline in employment growth is another indicator of a healthy slowdown in an economy which has experienced exceptional growth. Also, although a decline in household spending was experienced in the September quarter, the outlook for household consumption remains positive. Previous Government tax cuts have increased household disposable income and the RBA has left interest rates unchanged at 5.50%. Oil prices falling to below $US60 a barrel in the first week of November will also be a positive contributor to consumer confidence. Brendan Gallagher and Winnie Butt
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