This commonly used idiom or cliché describes the feeling of time passing by very quickly. Most scientific research was able to explain away this perception of phenomenon as simply the desire to do, see, hear, read and observe more and not enough time in which to do it all. In scientific circles, it was also referred to as Time Pressure.
2019 was every bit this, from investment markets to the inner workings of the Financial Keys business.
As the 10th and last year of the decade draws to an end and in keeping with Financial Keys tradition, we take a quick look back at the year that was 2019.
Although the UK is no longer the global powerhouse it once was, Brexit dominated global headlines and was one of several disruptive forces for global markets. At the time of writing, the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party had won a decisive victory, the largest win for the Tories since the days of Margaret Thatcher - while the opposition Labour Party and its leader Jeremy Corbyn will have suffered their worst defeat in several decades.
As such, Johnson and the Conservatives will assuredly plough forward with Brexit as this could happen in a matter of months and give us a reason to revisit the investment merits of the UK.
Can we finally see a small flickering of light at the end of the tunnel? As we stand today, the assumption is a US / China trade deal will be done. The latest ‘good oil’ would have us suggest that some form of deal is likely to be finalised in the Dec 2019 to Feb 2020 period. The view is that leading into the US November 2020 election, the US President will want at least two quarters of positive economic data to support his re-election campaign and to demonstrate to voters a 'win' over China.
It is in both the US and China’s interests that both countries come to some type of deal. From the US angle, Trump has his political self-interest in mind as well as the long-term interests of the country he is hoping to lead for a second term. In the event a deal is done, the impact may be a wider headline economic recovery in China and a boost to the US as well as increased European confidence around trade negotiations.
The Trump impeachment should only be a sideline act – for now.
There was of course a long list of other disruptors in 2019 – too many to list. Australia even saw a somewhat stable government for six months of 2019!
In researching for the December newsletter, there were many interesting as well as obscure changes during 2019 – I share a few with you;
In a somewhat fitting comment, in a recent address at the World Economic Forum, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau argued persuasively that “the pace of change may never have been this fast, but it will never again be this slow.”
Over the last year, Financial Keys has also been very busy behind the scenes, ensuring that our service offering remains superior and continues to add value to our clients.
Some highlights include:
We look forward to working with you into the next decade and sharing how some of these changes and other opportunities we are considering can further enhance your financial position on a personal basis.
Best wishes for the holiday season and a prosperous 2020 to you and your families.
The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) started the year off much like the previous finished, although most of the steam had been taken out of the rally with January producing a solid +1.20% return. February was much more muted with the uncertainty of an imminent reporting season hanging over the market however with better-than-expected results, coupled with softer-than-expected domestic inflation data, March provided some highlights as Australian shares hit new record highs. The quarter ended on a high with March producing +3.27% closing the quarter off with an attractive +5.53%.
2023 made for another very interesting year in investment markets as macro / regime driven events resulted in extreme shifts in investor sentiment on an almost monthly basis. Investors chose to shoot first and ask questions later in what can best be described as a year of maximum noise.
The Australian equity market (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200) started the September quarter with a flurry but ended up in the red as the global “higher-for-longer” narrative (interest rates) coupled with the ever-increasing cost of living concerns caused consumer confidence to wane.